The CARAT study

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the second leading cause of the fatal disease burden among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples. Premature CVD contributes significantly to the large life expectancy gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Primary prevention of CVD is underpinned by identification of modifiable risk, and this is best achieved using risk prediction algorithms. Despite the availability and use, as part of primary health clinical guidelines, of CDV risk prediction equations, none have been developed using primary health care data for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples and even when recalibrated for Indigenous populations, these risk equations underestimate risk.

This project's overarching aim is to develop Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples CVD risk equations that will substitute less inaccurate equations currently used.

We will use primary health care electronic medical records from our partners' Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services to extract data on regular clients':

• Demographics and anthropometrics
• Biological factors (metabolic and cardiovascular),
• Health and lifestyle (smoking, drinking)
• Socio economic status (employment, education, postcode)
• Emotional health (depression, anxiety, quality of life)
• History of CVD and age at onset of CVD risk factors (e.g. diabetes and chronic kidney disease)
• Medication used to manage CVD risks factors

We will carry out a data linkage of the primary health care data above with hospital data collections and the national death index database and use statistical models to develop and validate algorithms that calculate the risk of a fatal and non-fatal CVD, stroke and coronary heart event at 5 and 10 years from assessment. This work will translate in accurate CVD risk predictions and thus better and timely primary prevention and management of CVD risk in Indigenous Australians aged 18 and over.